Low Information Legislators

As if low information voters weren't bad enough, we in Minnesota also have a number of low information Legislators ready to solve all our problems next month in St. Paul.  As Exhibit A, but by no means an isolated example is Rep. Ryan Winkler, DFL-Golden Valley (44B) and chair of the House Select Committee on Living Wage Jobs.  I submit as proof his commentary A Road Map For Prosperity in Minnesota appearing in today's (12/27) Minneapolis Star Tribune.

In my very first post Say The Secret Word in 2004, I said that I stop reading an article at the first mention of Halliburton, then Vice President Dick Cheney's former employer.  You immediately knew the author had no case if they had to trot out this pointless canard.  Over eight years later, the concept of "Living Wage" jobs is another reliable indicator of unreliable information.

Sure enough, Mr. Winkler repeatedly violates perhaps tenet one of serious debate, that correlation is not causation.  He more or less pines for the good old days of the Minnesota Miracle, when we could somehow afford to triple state spending every twenty years.  The bill came due about 10 years ago, of course, and our liberal intelligentsia have been trying ever since to somehow resume this course so that they can again give everything to everybody.  With near total control of power, the DFL will get their chance in about two weeks.

Sprinkled in are a few non-facts, like that early childhood education actually works.  The "research proves it" he claims, only the gains disappear well before age 10.  Speaking of research, he thinks our universities can generate employment utopia by the simple expedient of giving them more money.  Of course, the other 49 states can also do this and many have, to no discernable advantage.  He also believes in things unseen like that mythical tax break employers get for moving jobs overseas.

And as "Senior Economist for The Late Debate With Jack and Ben" (and St. Thomas professor) Dr. John Spry observed, Ryan Winkler doesn't seem to understand how the economy even works.  To read Winkler's article here, you would think it's some sort of wonkish machine that will respond favorably to wise policies, such as the ones he outlines.  Again quoting Spry, "the economy is just lots of ordinary people going about everyday life as workers and consumers and hopefully entrepreneurs."

Rep. Winkler needs a new road map, one showing the burgeoning "mining" (oil) industry in North Dakota while ours (minerals) is hopelessly tied up in environmentalist red tape.  Or the low taxes in South Dakota while our Governor seeks to push the total margin income tax rates over 50 percent.  Or even Iowa, which quietly has become a top ten business friendly state.  And of course, Wisconsin, that chose sensible state spending over public union largess. 

Each in their own way, our surrounding states are embracing the future.  The DFL prefers to chase a past that ultimately never was.

Comments

[Hiram]

While correlation may not always mean correlation, it is very often the case that where there is smoke, fire can be found in the general vicinity.

[Speed Gibson]

So its OK to infer that K-12 integration aid money actually widens the achievement gap, as the data unilaterally suggests?

[J. Ewing]

You seem to subscribe that getting elected is a sign of intelligence. That is a case unsupported by NEITHER causation nor correlation, unless you wish to say that the higher the office, the lower the ability to think rationally. We know that correlation exists elsewhere in government, e.g. the more money spent on public education, the poorer the results, and the higher the taxes the lower the state's growth and employment.

[Hiram]

I am not sure it's ok to infer it, but it's certainly ok to ask the question. Causes do have effects, do they not? And aren't effects always a form of correlation?

[Hiram]

By the way gaps are statistical artifacts, not things that exist in the real world. Statistics show there is an achievement gap, but show me an actual kid with an actual achievement gap. Gaps are usually compound things, the combination of different factors which can be and often must be, addressed independently. The achievement gap supposedly tells us we teach majority kids better than we teach minority kids. But that doesn't in itself tell us how to teach minority kids better. And in fact, we are doing a better job in teaching minority kids, much of the achievement gap is the result of the fact that the number of minority kids is increasing, not that their scores are dropping which by in large they are not.

[Hiram]

In logic, this cause correlation thing refers to a common fallacy known as affirming the consequent:

Premise:

If A, then B.

The conclusion: B then A, is fallacious, although both may be true. However in terms of correlation, not B, then not A, is logically sound if the premise is true.

[Hiram]

If I recall my grade school logic, the not B, then not A, is known as denying the consequent, and is not a fallacy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modus_tollens

[youtube.com/watch?v=wHWBupPzmTw]

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