I Think We're Winning

There is something almost heartening about the Minneapolis Star Tribune's increasingly rabid support of Governor Mark Dayton's shutdown gambit.  Please, please give him what he wants!  Consider today's installment.

If the state shutdown is to end, the Republicans in the Minnesota Legislature will have to allow a tax increase on the wealthy. Gov. Mark Dayton told the voters in 2010 he would tax the wealthy, and the voters elected him.

The logic apparently is that since Dayton is intractable, the Republicans will have to concede.  By that reckoning, we should should all just give the school bully our lunch money.  And to clarify, Dayton wants to tax high income earners, not the wealthy, a not insignificant difference.  And unmentioned is nearly a billion dollars in medical assistance surcharges, what long term care providers have labeled a "granny tax."  And while the Republican Legislative gains were state-wide, Dayton won only MInneapolis and St. Paul.  Continuing,

The GOP argument that a tax increase of the richest Minnesotans would be harmful in these poor economic times remains unproven. However, not approving a tax increase would result in more property tax increases.

Once again, the writer accidentally on purpose confuses wealth with income.  It spares having to defend why small business owners and family farms must suffer.  Regardless, taxing the "rich" has indeed proved harmful in many other states.  New York is letting their exercise in tax "fairness" expire before they lose any more revenue.  What is unproven is that not raising state taxes means higher property taxes.  This is of course a self-fulfilling prophecy in DFL strongholds like Minneapolis.

Dayton and the DFL members again and again have offered compromises. Dayton can be patient because knows the Republicans face re-election in 2012 and he faces re-election 2014.

Dayton's cocktail napkin proposals have been so vague and vacillating that you really cannot call them offers.  There is no basis for discussion - including compromise - versus the detailed, completed and balanced budget passed by the Legislature.  Indeed, the only serious discussions have been about revenue, not spending.  As for his offered compromises to date, reductions in the proposed tax increases, he obviously can come back in a year or two for the rest, whether he runs again in 2014 or not.  In fact he must, since the Dayton budget such as it is fixes nothing longer term.

Give the governor his tax increase, then let the voters decide which side was right and which side was wrong. That's usually how compromise goes. It's classic American politics.

This is Maria Cantwell / Al Franken thinking: keep counting and voting until you get the answer you want.  The voters did decide last November, in the case of the Legislature, decidedly, historically so.  There is no need to put off the debate another two years.  But let a commenter on the Star Tribune site point out the biggest fallacy of all in this editorial (edited for clarity):

"[Since] the Repubicans face election first why not give them their budget and let the voters decide in 2012?  Dayton doesn’t get his vote until 2014, so how does giving in to Dayton make him face the voters in 2012?"

Perfectly reasoned, unlike this editorial, unlike a prior one just like it.  There is a sense of panic rising from this paper, perhaps fearful that their erratic Governor may not succeed.  He has switched to talking sales taxes instead of income taxes, then back again for example.  They know his record as a quitter.  They see the polls showing overwhelming opposition to increasing state spending still higher.  They know that the public unions are unhappy being out of work even if silent for now.  Resurrecting the League of Inconsequential Gentlemen went nowhere.  And the State is running out of beer!  Time favors the GOP and they know it. 

I think we're winning!  Unless the GOP caves, the DFL booth at the State Fair may have to offer hazardous duty pay.

Comments

[Hiram]

That editorial is from the Albert Lea newspaper. The Star Tribune often carries opinions from various points of view, and it can't be assumed that in publishing them, the Strib agrees with them. They carry Jason Lewis and Katherine Kersten too. In this case, I certainly don't think it's the Strib's belief that, "If the state shutdown is to end, the Republicans in the Minnesota Legislature will have to allow a tax increase on the wealthy." That's very much the kind of statement you get from an outstate paper that has room to be a little careless in what it says. As it happens, I don't think that statement is true either, and I say that as a much stronger supporter of the governor than the Star Tribune has ever been.

By the way, I agree with this criticism that their has been a conflation of wealth with income. I don't know how intentional that is, political types don't really have a good understanding of what wealth is and how it works in the world.

[Hiram]

In WW I, it has been said, the British war office kept three sets of casualty statistics, one to fool the public, one to fool the politicians, and one to fool itself. That's something I have been thinking a lot about lately. Maybe people are putting too much faith, too much belief in the talking points they create, and the stereotypes that they propagate.

[Hiram]

"Dayton's cocktail napkin proposals have been so vague and vacillating that you really cannot call them offers."

Republican have been so dedicated to finding ways to disguise the same intransigent position in numerous ways in order to present the illusion of a willingness to compromise, that the effect has been that they are unable to recognize what a willingness to compromise looks like when it's right before their eyes.

[Mark]

Hiram: it is very much the Star Tribune's belief that we need to tax the high income earners more. While they may occasionally publish articles by Katherine Kersten and Jason Lewis, the Strib's editorial stance is hard left and redistribunist.

Speed: I have noticed that the Strib has not published one of their polls with loaded questions designed to show support for it's hard left editorial positions. That leads me to believe that they have tried to do so and found, even with their loaded questions, that the public overwhelmingly opposes the Governor.

[Speed Gibson]

Thank you Hiram, my error in not noticing/noting the source of this Editorial. In my weak defense, I will note that it matched a prior Strib opinion quite closely, which prompted this post.

But I think we can assume based on everything else in the Strib the past two weeks that they don't disagree with a word of it.

[Hiram]

"it is very much the Star Tribune's belief that we need to tax the high income earners more."

I don't have that sense myself, but I have to say, I don't look to find that opinion in the Star Tribune. Like most folks, I think they favor a balanced approach, tax increases and reduced spending, and I think they are skeptical of a tax increase too focused on high earners. A skepticism, I share to some extent.

[J. Ewing]

You know what? I don't give a flying fig what the Star Tribune or its partisan parts think, except to the degree they influence public opinion with their poisonous pens.

One does have to admire their success, however-- the degree to which they have taken an event which, by any objective analysis, is ENTIRELY the fault of the Governor, and laid the blame on an entirely innocent bystander, the Legislature.

[Hiram]

These days I see the strib as business oriented and centrist, a function of their near death experiences and their ownership by venture capitalists. You see this most explicitly in their endorsements of Coleman and Horner. I don't think they like the GOP's refusal to compromise but that view is hardly limited to the left. Republicans are really on the wrong side of public opinion there which is why they work so hard to disguise their intransigence.

[The Big Stink]

Now they're cutting off the beer flow into the state. I feel the revolution brewing.....

[Mark]

Hiram:

We'll have to agree to disagree. No way is the Strib centrist. They have been firmoly in Dayton's camp throughout the shutdown both editorially and in their "reporting." BTW, Hiram, the Republicans are on the right side of public opinion according the one poll that's out there. Also, the refusal to compromise is not the GOP-its the Governor who vetoed all the bills and forced this shutdown. I have to say, Hiram, you sound like a Strib reporter or editorialist-very extreme liberals who see themselves as centrist.

[The Big Stink]

Mark: If you disagree with Hiram, you're my friend. Welcome.

[IndyJones]

I liked Daytons civil war comment...problem is that he's got the wrong war in mind. Its the revolution once again. This is scarcely the start.

[Hiram]

", the Republicans are on the right side of public opinion according the one poll that's out there."

Taxing the rich always polls well. I think you are referring to the KSTP poll. The problem is that KSTP has financial ties to the Republican Party and it shows a lot. The poll you are referring was shall we say, not a shining example of professionalism. And it didn't ask about tax increases.

One indication of the popularity of Dayton's positions is that Republican have tried to appropriate them. They talk about their willingness to compromise. Interestingly, they argue that they have increased state spending by 6%. They don't have to. They could just as easily argue that they held state spending flat by including the shift. But they made the political decision to present themselves as supporting an apparent increase in the state government. They have also argued that they have increased tax revenues, another argument that appeals to the center.

"the refusal to compromise is not the GOP-its the Governor who vetoed all the bills and forced this shutdown."

As a practical matter, Republicans at least prior to today, have refused to compromise, sticking with their initial budget offer of 34 billion. They have rearranged numbers but the overall numbers have remained the same. But their eagerness to present the illusion as opposed to the reality of compromise is another indication of the strength of Dayton's position.

[Hiram]

Earlier today, a new budget offer was made by Dayton, one that was prepared in consultation with Republican Rep. Larry Howes. As I understand it at this point, the governor basically accepts the GOP offer of June 30th, which includes about a billion dollars of borrowing, along with a bonding bill. Those aren't quite the numbers I have seen reported, but I don't think the early numbers are accurate. There is no tax increase, so that means the money borrowed will be paid back according to current tax rates, by you in ways that are harder to figure out, and for which Republicans stand a better chance of avoiding the blame. Suffice it to say, you will be paying the loans back, not the rich, who will be busily creating jobs with the tax money they save. The politics of that are interesting. The June 30th offer was not at all popular with many legislative Republicans, and the extreme shift will not make schools happy. I can tell you, this isn't really surprising to anyone. As I said earlier

[Hiram]

Mark- Tax increases are not as unpopular as Republicans think. The DFL passed the hated transportation tax in 2007, and it was a total non-issue in 2008. People willingly vote for tax increases that even I would argue are horrendous policy and bad ideas, like the Legacy Tax. And of course, lots of school referendums pass. The dogmatic anti-tax policy we see in the Republican Party, is mostly there to appeal to the base, not the electorate as a whole.

[Mark]

Hiram, Hiram, Hiram...Where to start? At this point in time, voting for increased taxes in politically toxic. Don't talk about 2008-this is 2011. Also, I see you trying to present yourself as a moderate centrist. You're not. You're every bit as far left as Dayton. Those of us on the right and center right can't see you because you are so far left you're hidden behind the curvature of the earth. BTW, are you the Governor? Your grasp of reality is every bit as weak as his. Anyway, been amusing to dialog with you.

[Hiram]

"At this point in time, voting for increased taxes in politically toxic."

It is for Republicans, but not politicians generally. Tax increases for specific purposes poll quite well, so well that KSTP a station with Republican ties, avoided polling on the issue.

[Mark]

Hiram: Liberals who have relied on the Strib's polling for years should not be throwing stones at anyone else's polling...

[Hiram]

Never relied on Strib polling myself. I am very skeptical of polling in general. Just in technical terms, the KSTP poll was awful. It used complex questions, the questions themselves were ambiguous when not outright murky. They asked if state spending should be cut. Obligated state spending is at 39 billion. There aren't very many people in the state who don't think it should be cut, certainly not Dayton whose budget number was at 35.8 billion at the time.

[Mark]

Hiram, you should be especially critical of the Strib's polling and pay attention to actual elections-like the most recent one which produced a landslide against your budgeting and tax policies.

[Hiram]

I don't pay a lot of attention to polling for several reasons. For one, I think it's purchased news. Polls don't have an objective reality, they are information that someone pays for and whoever gets paid for them has an interest in telling the buyer what they want to hear. That applies both to Strib and KSTP polling. For another, I never know what polling numbers mean. They are never placed in context. I would, for example, expect that generic questions like do you want your taxes raised, or are you in love with Congress, to poll in certain ways. What I want to know is what are the trends in those and why are those numbers the way they are?

I can't thing of an example where polling has influenced me in the policies I advocate. Some things I support poll well, others I support poll badly. I don't think the merit of any given policy is dependent on it's popularity, or even on the slightly different issue, how it polls.

[Hiram]

Another problem I have with polls is that I never like the results. If they show my guy is ahead, I hate them because they may lead to overconfidence. If they show my guy is behind, I hate them because they are bad for morale.