Speed Gibson

The Secret Storm

One of my favorite movie scenes is from the original The Parent Trap.  Unaware that his ex-wife is back in town to disrupt his remarriage, Mitch (Brian Keith) turn to his ranch foreman and asks him if he too feels like maybe there's a storm brewing.  I have the same feeling about the Vikings stadium, that the deal has essentially been struck, that we are seeing a carefully timed series of headlines herding us taxpayers to yet another shearing festival, and that too many Republicans are complicit in it.

After some "sense of urgency" discussions and the convenient collapse of the Metrodome roof, Hennepin County opts out.  Then Ramsey County opts in, supposedly with the Vikings on board.  And it also finally addresses the problem of the old ammunition plant.  Oh, but wait, those problems could be much more expensive than first thought.  And Sid thinks it should be downtown regardless.

So, enter Mayor Rybak with another downtown proposal that conveniently rehabs Target Center and papers over part of his property tax problems.  But the Vikings aren't crazy about it and now Governor Dayton says $300 million of state spending is it - no more, and not enough to fund either concept.  But oddly, he has also come out of his closet to start working on the final budget bills with the Legislature, perhaps to create a little time in the regular session to do a one day miracle.  Dayton will appear to compromise for the sake of all the union construction jobs created.  Block E and the racino could likely be part of this.  Building on the Metrodome site means it continues to get light rail service, including the new Central Corridor that shares that station with the Hiawatha line.  And a couple of Republicans are ready to introduce the legislation necessary.

Getting it done in the regular session pays bi-partisan dividends to those who vote yes and then seek re-election in 2012.  It maximizes the time for the public to forget, who are then treated to fawning press coverage on the new construction while the Vikings play at TCF Bank stadium.

There are other possible scenarios, but the one where the Republicans suddenly remember their principles, reach out to the John Marty wing, and kill this bill outright this year and next isn't likely one of them.  It'll come out of nowhere, raise taxes, draw from the many slush funds available, and become law in less time than you can say, "Tim Pawlenty!"

The Late Debate

I'm running out of minutes.  Between live radio, podcasts, a little music, and of course my old time radio addiction, I can't possibly listen to it all.  But about a month ago I had to make room for one more, the Late Debate with Jack and Ben on 95.9 FM, 10 p.m. to midnight, Sunday through Thursday.  I'm apparently too far away from their Forest Lake transmitter to pull it in but their podcasting is prompt and of good audio quality.

Jack is Jack Tomczak and Ben is Ben Kruse (with a long e as opposed to State Senator Benjamin Kruse of silent e), both local politicos.  Together they do what I've long thought was so needed: a show devoted to state and local government, politics and politicians.  There are endless shows covering the national and international scenes and too often even locally produced programs wander into these already well-covered areas.

It's a surprisingly good show already given their limited radio experience.  They largely do interviews, also remarkably good given their experience.  By good I mean interesting and informative, usually regarding a topic making headlines.  As a recent interview on same sex marriage showed, they aren't afraid to take such issues head on, in serious adult discussion.

Station owners, advertisers, take note.  I'd listen live - commercials and all - if I could.

 

Close Enough

In my email is another plea from the District 281 Legislative Action Coalition (LAC) to write letters.  The conference committee has produced the consolidated K-12 education bill.  Someone has rolled the numbers, estimating that the Robbinsdale Area Schools will receive about $1 million less than the current funding formulas would have provided.  Since the latter was never going to happen, this is almost meaningless. Regardless, this is well under 1% of the total district budget.  The district can likely raise property taxes without a referendum to at least partially cover this presumed shortfall.

A big part of this small change is the reduction and refocus of integration funding into literacy funding and general funding.  It's almost embarrassing to hear the metro districts wail how this money is there to close the achievement gap, for it clearly does not.  Instead, it buys experts who say that middle school study halls should now be "guided study halls" rather than just eliminate them outright.  The Legislature has this right, focusing on results, not who is sitting next to whom.

Partly due to some prudent anticipatory expense control, Robbinsdale will be just fine with this new formula.  It could have been, some might say should have been much worse.  The only real danger now is a veto by Governor Dayton, no doubt with the intention to put back more money into the Minneapolis and St. Paul districts.  That would have to come from the suburban and rural districts, including 281.

 

Summary Judgment

The media no doubt again wishes to help us pick the Republican Presidential nominee and why not?  We seem to bite every time, and wonder where all the friendly press coverage went after the conventions.  Had not the Democrats nominated unlikeable morons in 1988, 2000 and 2004, Ronald Reagan would have been the last GOP winner. 

But some of our trouble comes from within.  You may remember how national talk show host, author, and film critic Michael Medved lost his way, gushing for John McCain in 2008.  Now comes Stanley Kurtz at the NRO Corner, talking up Tim Pawlenty, asking "what's not to like?"  I was going to answer in a comment but another commenter left nothing unsaid:

I am a fiscally conservative Minnesotan who watched politics closely during Pawlenty's two terms, and I guarantee you you don't want this guy answering the phone at 3:00 a.m.

Pawlenty is professional politician, not a leader. He quit being a lawyer at age 34 to pursue his political career, and has been focused on higher office ever since. His only real accomplishment in Minnesota was not raising taxes, which was a position he was forced into by the Minnesota Taxpayers' League in order to finally win the twelfth ballot of a hotly contested endorsement race. An awkward executive, he surrounded himself with sycophants who checked the political winds before he made any decision. His lack of guts and vision was apparent as he used accounting shifts to maintain his anti-tax image and hold the Democratic legislature at bay. There was no structural reform. Even his winning of a second term was little more than luck, as he was way behind in the polls until the last minute gaffe of his opponent. Pawlenty is neither transformational nor inspirational. He lacks both innate executive leadership and the vision to lead. America needs much much more.

It's possible a "seminar" Democrat actually wrote this, but this is a very fair assessment regardless.  That said, I won't have any trouble voting for him should he win the nomination, for the irony is that his "talents" are better suited to national office.

But just once, when it clearly now matters most, can we at least clear the field of glad-handers like Pawlenty and fringe candidates like Ron Paul?

 

Point, Counterpoint

Call it schadenfreude if you like but I pay particular attention when one liberal criticizes another liberal, as it often tells us much about our modern age.  The size of government has reached critical mass in Minnesota not to mention Washington.  No longer able to routinely raise taxes to satisfy everyone, the special interests are now eyeing each other.

The Point: The Minneapolis Star Tribune's budget plan published April 24th, leading off with:

Sharing the burden of hard times comes naturally in Minnesota.

That value is preached from the state's pulpits, is reinforced by a highly inclusive democracy and is demonstrated through countless personal acts each day.

Shared sacrifice should be the overriding principle for Gov. Mark Dayton and the 2011 Legislature as they complete the work of balancing the state budget in the next month.

If it is not, their efforts will do lasting damage to something that's been at the heart of this state's 153-year success story -- the sense that Minnesotans are all in this together.

One of those shared sacrifices is actually breathtaking, actually acknowledging reality:

Like Dayton and the Legislature, we propose to break the Legislature's promise to repay school districts $1.4 billion that was "shifted" away from them in 2010-11. It's time to concede that the "shift" was in fact a one-time cut. Not repaying it shaves the $5 billion forecasted deficit to $3.6 billion.

The Counterpoint, published May 1: "Schools bear the burden already" by Patsy Green, chair of the Association of Metropolitan School Districts (AMSD) and member of the Robbinsdale Area Schools (District 281) Board.  You may remember that I endorsed her re-election in 2009, for her proven and unmatched commitment to the Robbinsdale Area Schools.  Her rejoinder:

While sharing sacrifices is a worthy goal, it makes sense only if there is an accurate set of facts as a starting point. The Star Tribune plan looks forward without taking into account the burdens that have already been shared.

The Star Tribune plan implies that public schools have not experienced budget-cutting pain over the past several years. A plan that tries to avoid unfairness should not ignore schools and others that have already carried a significant portion of Minnesota's economic burden and have sustained enduring damage.

Both the Star Tribune and Green find virtue in shared sacrifice, as an "overriding principle" and a "worthy goal."  And both then say: you first.  To which I say, if everyone sacrifices, everyone loses.

The dirty little secret about sacrifice in real life is that not everyone loses.  Otherwise, there's no point for anyone to agree to it.  We could each agree to bury $ 100 in our back yards as a universal sacrifice for its own sake but why would we, no matter how "fair?"

"Fairness" and "sacrifice" should have nothing to do with any of this.  Assembling an "accurate set of facts" on who has suffered most is useless "as a starting point."  Rather than worry about how well other areas are faring at the Capitol, the AMSD should focus on helping its members better explain their situations.  The financials published today, however accurate, are not understandable and therefore justify little.  Testing of the academic results is not consistent, conclusive or convincing.  The sob stories that their lobbyists think should work obviously don't.

Something else that won't work is not working with the new Republican majority.  Have the confidence in your schools to take zero based budgeting as proposed by Rep. Banaian head on, elevating education above the unpredictable politics of envy.  Take the lead by having an AMSD task force develop the understandable financial reporting that will require, the "accurate set of facts" we really need.

Half Measure

Higher Education is taking a "budget cut" this biennium no matter who prevails at the end.  Even Governor Dayton's budget would have cut $ 100-200 million, maybe more if he actually had to make his budget balance.  The Republicans proposals cut about twice that, about one dollar in seven.  That's a serious cut to be sure, almost scary if you cast that as closing 15% of the many campuses in the University of Minnesota and Minnesota State College system (MnSCU).  But the more I think about it, that's not enough.

Tell me why we shouldn't cut Higher Education funding in half.  That doesn't mean half the output, as there are many private providers, which is actually part of my reasoning.  It certainly means pain for many in the system now, as in fewer locations, fewer programs, fewer jobs, and higher tuition.  But correlating recent news, observations, events, research, and a little insider information increasingly suggests to me that Minnesota would be the better for it.

Reality #1: There is a glut, a significant oversupply of post secondary options, public and private.  These institutions are agressively competing for students.  Media and online ads are everywhere.  Boiler room operations exist to agressively recruit students, turning over every rock to find financing.  None of this illegal per se, but for the State to offer discounted public competition to the private providers is at least morally questionable.

Reality #2: Too many high school graduates are going to college.  It's all high school students hear, that you're nothing without post secondary education.  Trade apprenticeships, entry level jobs in a chosen field, and of course, military service are not acceptable these days. 

Reality #3: Too many high school graduates aren't even ready for college.  As I've noted several times, a third of Minnesota public high school graduates arrive at our public colleges needing remedial work in English and Mathematics.  With the basics questionable, everything else on their transcripts is questionable as well.

Reality #4: Too many college students aren't learning very much.  A recent study shows that after two years, far too many sophomores show no progress in developing their critical thinking, complex reasoning, and written communication skills.  I'm more apt to blame the students here, more evidence that they shouldn't be here in the first place.

Reality #5: Too many college students are pursuing majors of little or no use landing a job other than teaching it.  Perhaps you've seen one of many recent stories on this, including some surprises like that Chemistry made some of these lists.

Reality #6: Too many colleges are offering too many classes and programs bereft of career or intellectual value.  I suppose there have always been basket weaving and jock courses, but again, numerous articles are finding some absolutely nutty offerings these days.  Often the course title ends with "studies" and starts with some demographic group.

Reality #7: Too many graduates are leaving college with debt loads unthinkable even a generation ago.  Easy money is in fact fueling the rampant growth in education expenses, often growing even faster than health care.  Again, thinning the herd keeps marginal students from wasting their money and forces the colleges to finally do some serious expense control.

Higher Education has become a futile exercise in diminishing returns.  Decades ago, fewer went to college, took serious courses, and yes, were markedly more successful than the rest.  Our social planners figured if they could just get a sheepskin in more hands, they, too would be as successful.  It's the old Certification Myth, overlooking the benefits of the healthy competition that used to be required of both students and institutions.  Easy money ended that, leading to overbuilding and over-admissions.

We need to stop deceiving our children, working instead case by case to find the best fit among all choices, not just college.  At a national level we also need to stop spending their future earnings by borrowing against them today.

Cut it in half, 15% each of the next three bienniums.