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Saturday, March 06, 2010

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I don't think it's any of these things. Gang violence is cyclical. We've been in a lull due to upheaval in the housing market, the weather and a campaign which focused specifically on juvenile crime enforcement. It always comes back when the factors are back.

Gang violence is only cyclical when the next generation adopts it. Instead of being proactive, the city has, for political reasons, taken a reactive posture. Expect more dysfunction. The inner cities in our country have a daunting future. The most devious social planner could not have concocted a better way to destroy the black family than the modern welfare state.

Well here is the graph, any thoughts triggered regarding the causes of variation? Other than random occurence.

Maybe recessions increase the number? Or was something else happening in 1995.

Stink, I agree with what you say but the upswings and downswings have more to do with the root causes feeding the gangs. I used to live next door to a retired Mpls cop. He said that they go through proactive cycles, doing the knock and talks and getting juveniles off the street at night. The minute they let up (this stuff is all contingent on vast amounts of overtime) they were back shooting at eachother. I also think the foreclosures disrupted a lot of gang violence because the bangers had to lay their head somewhere, usually with a relative. Only crackheads will squat in a vacant house.

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